Mark Sleboda 

Hey Mark, have been watching you for a while, for years in fact, primarily in youtube videos by Garland, Nima etc. Since I have just missed the weekly Q&A, i would like to ask the question here, since it is directly related to video you have made with Garland: You have been mentioning this "mathematical box" that Russia is trying to stay in wrt to the conflict in Ukraine. But since the europeans have wasted vast amounts of its interceptor stocks to Ukraine and also transferred vast amounts of actual air defense systems, they should be very weakly defended. Why does Russia not decide to perform decisive strikes against key military transport hubs in europe, or drone factories to show the west: "You are not invincible, and your article 5. does not scare us". I personally, just like Karaganov do not think they will dare to invoke article 5. Would now, out of all the times, be the best time to scare them off ? Can Russia not take it?

One more sort of related question. I was at a graduation party in Hanford, CA, a small city in the middle of the San Joaquin Valley, and pulled aside a third generation farmer I've known for years. I asked him how much more he was paying for fertilizer since Trump started the war with Iran. He told me he's paying 150% more and its rising daily. Not that it should be sent to us, but can the global shortfall be made up by Russia and/or any other fertilizer producing countries that don't rely on the Persian Gulf supply chain?

Just a related comment. The farmer I mentioned in my question knows beyond any shadow of doubt that Trump and the US government are responsible for the fertilizer hyper inflation.

Thanks once again Mark for your insights. Theories abound with regard to the RU warnings re: attacks on Ukraine and particularly Kiev in future. 1. The Kremlin is capitulating to public opinion. 2. The Kremlin is now as angry as the public. 3. China has given the RU its blessing. 4. The recent attacks on RU energy infrastructure were far more damaging than you have told us. (I don’t believe this, but it’s out there.) 5. This was going to happen anyway, after the mud season ceased, and it just happened to coincide with Ukrainian atrocities. A combination? Something else? Again, thank you.

Hi Mark, could you give a quick rundown on how recruitment numbers are going vs battlefield losses? I keep hearing the usual BS about Russia not being able to keep up with the losses, and its hard to find credible sources to refute/confirm it here in the heart of Narrativeland. Also, like Andrew, I'd like some info on exactly how much effect these refinery hits are doing. Thanks.