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With questions from Neal S, Matthew Ong & Oy
Covering: - The US-Russia Diesel Deal Charade & Trump's Minsk 3.0 Pitch - How Does Iran Supply the Axis of Resistance Today? - Will Russia Make a Dramatic Breakthrough in the Donbass?
В. ИИ. Ленин
Ваш довод об институциональной инерции, Марк, самый сильный в вашем рассуждении, но я бы выразил его на языке классов: Трамп против чиновничьего болота, по-моему, это спор между фракциями капитала о том, чьим танкерам дадут страховку, а чьим нет. Личная неприязнь тут почти ни при чём.
Поэтому вот мой вопрос. Если бюрократия способна задушить в комитетах любое президентское распоряжение, то почему именно это, снятие санкционных ограничений, исполняется так, что танкеры действительно сдвигаются с места (Интерфакс называет срок в два-три дня)? Спит ли болото или ему просто по вкусу этот груз?
В. ИИ. Ленин, We will agree to disagree on the usefulness of "class" for looking through the prism of this conflict and international relations & geopolitics in general, because I am after all a realist and you are I assume a died-in-the-wool old skool marxist. That aside... I would presume that this minor and temporary lifting of the sanctions on Russia diesel is not viewed as threatening of the US security state's core interests and designs, and as it is wrapped up in Trump's desperate personal domestic political attempts to cling on to to power in DC, as not worth the potential trouble of preventing it. Skillful use of Power is also knowing when to exercise it and when not to. But that's just a guess.
Trump Fails to Lure Kremlin into Ukraine Ceasefire,
Russian Jet-Powered Drones SLAM West Ukraine
My latest discussion with @RachBlevins 20/10/26
https://youtu.be/6fCVBAbFRWo?si=3tfRCwmYZUih4GUi
В. ИИ. Ленин
Марк, перемирие никогда не бывает нейтральным. Это передышка, и вопрос только в том, кому она служит. В Бресте мы купили передышку, и все за столом это понимали, потому и условия были такими тяжёлыми. Сторона, которая предлагает паузу, обычно нуждается во времени сильнее той, которую просят это время дать. Наживка, на которую не клюнули, говорит о голоде рыболова больше, чем о рыбе.
В. ИИ. Ленин, Well, I don't think there is any argument at all - and nothing to argue. Thank you for the post, but I am far from an expert on the subject of Brest-Tilsit, will largely leave history to the historians, and concentrate on the current war.
Hey @everyone I will be taping your weekly Q&A tomorrow evening Moscow time 21/10/26. If you have any questions for me, please post them here or on the Discord Community in the Weekly Q&A chennel.
Neal S
Would love to hear your thoughts on the charade we see of this schism between Trump administration and its proxy + EU vassals. Do you believe there's really a serious split here or that its mostly about domestic politics in US and collective west panicked and making another concerted effort to get a "Minsk 3" to save its proxy regime?
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